Great Time Optimal Allocation Of Foreign Exchange Reserves

Submitted by: Himfr Paul

Chinese holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, while sustained, continuous overweight Japan, South Korea bonds, and also bought Greece, Spain and other European countries, the bond can be seen, characterized by diversification strategy is being implemented optimal allocation of foreign exchange reserves. The implementation of the current international environment is the best time for optimal allocation strategy. At the same time, active acquisition of Brazil, Indonesia and other emerging economies of the assets, should be an important part of optimal allocation strategies.

“The first creditors” inappropriate matter whether

According to the U.S. Treasury Department on August 16 according to data released, following a reduction of 32.5 billion U.S. dollars in May after the U.S. Treasury, in June a further reduction of 24 billion U.S. dollars in China U.S. Treasury bonds. Since last July, the Chinese holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds have been 7 total holdings of 96.2 billion U.S. dollars, its proportion in China’s foreign exchange reserves declined by 4 percentage points. This means that China’s foreign exchange reserves is characterized by diverse optimization strategies are being implemented.

This year in February, I had written that China should continue to reduce U.S. debt to avoid foreign exchange reserves in dollar assets in the large proportion of the risks. Now, I believe that the international environment for China’s further reduction of U.S. Treasury bonds to bring a good opportunity, and China is no need to continue to maintain the United States, “the first creditor” status, but should continue to holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds.

It was reported that China is still the largest holders of U.S. Treasury bonds, as of June 30, China’s holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds amounted to 843.7 billion U.S. dollars, more than the second place 40.1 billion U.S. dollars in Japan. If the Chinese continue to reduce holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds and U.S. Treasuries, Japan to continue (as it recently did), then China is likely to the United States, “the first creditor,” the Kau Yi vacate Japan. But this is not terrible, this high-risk “first creditors” inappropriate worth mentioning. U.S. economic recovery outlook, the U.S. economy’s share in the global economy is falling, the Fed recently reviving “quantitative easing” policy, which must be further diluted dollar assets “gold content.” In this context, China’s U.S. dollar assets to further reduce the proportion of outside storage should be an instinctive defensive measures.

At the same time, the current international financial environment to bring China a good opportunity for U.S. dollar assets. In the past, because China holds much U.S. debt, and the dollar also depreciated, if the Chinese holdings of U.S. debt will rise to the international financial market turbulence; and now, as the European sovereign debt crisis has not fully subsided, the euro fell push the dollar’s strength, Japan, UK holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds to foreign investors to purchase the increasing number of U.S. dollar assets, so that China’s holdings of dollar assets to digest the pressure on China in the process of reduction can be maintained is still holding The value of U.S. dollar assets. So now is the further reduction of U.S. Treasury bonds a good time.

Diversity configuration as necessary

The central bank on August 11 published data show that as at the end 6, the Chinese foreign exchange reserve amounted to 2.4543 trillion U.S. dollars. Data, in the second quarter foreign exchange reserves increased by nearly 7.2 billion U.S. dollars only, obviously slowed down. However, the number of existing foreign exchange reserves are still large, in safety management and hedge management more difficult still. For example, China’s holdings of U.S. treasuries at the same time, necessarily need to configure the assets of other countries and regions, but can now be found safe and preservation of foreign assets is not easy. And diversity of configuration, can be a relatively safe measure. From the current publicly reported, China is a large number of holdings in Japan, South Korea’s national debt, and buy Greece, Spain bonds. This is the debt held by a wide range of specific initiatives overseas, this trend should be continued.

Japan’s Finance Ministry announced on Aug. 9 report, China in June net purchases of 456.4 billion yen (about 5.3 billion U.S. dollars) Japanese government bonds, for the third consecutive 6 months net purchases of Japanese government bonds. China in the first half of the total holdings of Japanese government bonds was 1.73 trillion yen, or about 20.2 billion U.S. dollars, this total is almost 7 times the total in 2005. According to another report, the first half of this year, holdings of government bonds to 111% South Korea, the scale of up to 3.99 trillion won (about 3.4 billion U.S. dollars). While another reported that in mid-July, the Chinese Administration of Foreign Exchange to buy about 400 million euros in Spain, 10-year bonds.

China, Japan and South Korea’s most important trading partner, while Japan and South Korea also signed three financial cooperation framework agreement with China added to Japanese, South Korean bonds not only realize the Chinese Wai Chu Duo Yuanhua also improve in Japan and South Korea Sanguo financial linkages, strengthening regional financial cooperation in East Asia.

Industry in China to Greece, Spain and other countries to provide financial support seems to be critical of, because these countries are the European sovereign debt crisis of the hardest hit, is known as the “European pig Five” member, to purchase their very Debt Risk Great. However, I believe that we should look at more strategic issues. The euro is currently the only counterbalance to the dollar currency, the euro’s development and stability, weaken the dollar hegemony, the world’s reserve currency diversification to achieve the necessary elements. Therefore, the further spread of the European sovereign debt crisis and possible collapse of the trend of the euro, not in China’s interests. To Greece, Spain and other countries to provide the necessary financial support, Buying Euros to support the euro’s stability, not only conducive to China’s foreign reserve diversification, but also to meet the goal of global financial rebalancing.

With the advance of foreign reserve diversification strategy, I believe that China will buy more bonds in other countries.

Eyes on emerging economies

The implementation of China’s foreign exchange reserve diversification strategy, not only Yao is underweight the United States to buy Japanese government bonds the same time, South Korea and the European Guo Jia Deng relatively developed economy bond, Huan should put more of the attention toward the economic Ti Xin Xing.

As we all know, the current global economic situation has changed markedly: the United States, Japan, Europe and other developed countries and regions become stagnant economic growth, their share of the weight of the global economy declined; and emerging economies, rapid economic growth tends to , their share in global Jingji De proportion is increasing; we Yao Kandaozhege shift in the pattern and development of Qu Shi Bian Hua, more investment in emerging economies body, in order better to Tuidong diversification strategy, Bingjuzhengqu term of income.

Brazil, Indonesia, India, Mexico and other countries are far in excess of the level of global economic growth rate, the last unknown great come from behind in Indonesia, China should actively buying bonds in these countries or other financial assets to diversify this way, investment, optimize asset allocation purposes, they can share the fruits of economic growth in these countries, why not them?

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